Applying GIS in cholera forecast

Abstract

The spread of infectious diseases has a close relationship with the temporal and spatial localities due to the spread of disease is more likely
to occur if individuals are in near disease sources in terms of specific space and time. Therefore, it is very important to take both the temporal and spatial factors in the analysis of epidemic data. The basic principle is to examine the dependent relationship between observations on both space and time dimensions. In order to meet the above requirements, Geographic Information System (GIS) has the advantage over traditional nonspace methods. GIS can be used to determine the location and to create the map of disease cases. It can also be used for researching the causes of disease outbreaks, and for simulating and forecasting the disease spread. This paper proposed a GIS-based cholera forecast model for Hanoi city, which took the impact of the city’s climate changes into consideration. Experimental results showed that GIS can be effectively used for the analysis of the cholera epidemic of the research area. The research pointed out the hot
spots of cholera disease as well as it explained the relationship between spatial distribution variables, including climate, water area and
population, and the temporal distribution variable of the number of cholera cases.